Dairy can deliver another step-change in New Zealand’s export earnings, but doing so requires the next government to match the industry’s ambition with action on trade, infrastructure, energy, food regulation and biosecurity, the Dairy Companies Association of New Zealand (DCANZ) says.
Releasing DCANZ’s roadmap, Priorities for Government Action, Chair Guy Roper said dairy’s scale, productivity and strong global demand give it unmatched potential to increase export earnings.
“Dairy already earns more than one in every three dollars from New Zealand goods trade, directly contributes $10.7 billion to GDP, supports 51,800 jobs and pays $4b in wages.
“And it has the potential to make a significantly larger contribution.
“Export earnings grew from $13.4b in 2015 to $28.3b in 2025 — a compound annual growth rate of 7.8 percent, which was achieved with annual milk supply growth of only around 0.2 per cent,” Mr Roper said.
“If good policy enables dairy to sustain that rate of value growth, New Zealand will be better able to fund the health, education and transport systems we all aspire to.
“Capturing that opportunity requires an ambitious trade agenda, long-term infrastructure investment, internationally competitive energy and science-based, efficient, export-facilitating food regulation and biosecurity.”
Five priorities for Government action
- Back an ambitious trade agenda that enforces trade commitments, improves access under existing agreements, closes strategic gaps in FTA coverage through negotiations with new trade agreement partners, tackles non-tariff barriers and subsidy distortions, and invests in long-term relationships with China, the United States and India.
- Deliver export-competitive infrastructure and energy settings through a bipartisan approach to long-term investment in ports, roads, rail, freight and grid capacity, faster consenting for nationally significant projects, and a managed transition that provides abundant, reliable and affordable energy.
- Streamline food regulation and export assurances by keeping the Animal Products Act’s settings proportionate to risk, reducing duplication, enabling new technologies, and promoting New Zealand’s outcome-equivalent regulatory system overseas.
- Base food and nutrition policy on current science and clear labelling by recognising nutrient density, protein quality, and the dairy food matrix, and by aligning New Zealand’s food-labelling rules with the globally agreed standard for dairy terminology.
- Fund a biosecurity system that minimises impacts and maximises trade continuity, with enduring FMD readiness, risk-based border settings, and dairy trade continuity arrangements with key partners.
The roadmap highlights the scale of the trade opportunity and the costs of inaction.
In 2025, $8b of dairy exports remained either outside FTA coverage or subject to tariffs and quotas. Applied tariffs cost an estimated $726 million each year, or $2m a day. Some 43 percent of global dairy consumption remains outside New Zealand’s FTA coverage, while FTA partners representing another 45 percent still apply tariffs and quotas to our dairy exports.
Mr Roper said the compliance costs of non-tariff measures affecting dairy exports were estimated to exceed 28 percent of export value.
“New Zealand cannot afford a passive trade policy.
“Whichever government takes office after November 7 should urgently enforce trade rules, including by initiating action on Canada’s milk pricing subsidies. It should also improve dairy access through reviews of existing agreements and accession processes involving the EU, India and CPTPP partners; pursue new agreements with important existing and growth markets, including Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nigeria and Egypt; and advance work to reduce subsidy distortions and resolve non-tariff barriers.
“The next government must also recognise that export growth is built at home. It depends on resilient roads, rail and ports, and on secure, internationally competitive energy. These are essential to transform 22 billion kg of perishable milk into products enjoyed globally, making long-term infrastructure planning an economic priority.”
“Robust food regulatory and biosecurity systems have been central to New Zealand’s success as a dairy exporter. The next government must ensure they remain science-based, proportionate to risk, efficient and trade-facilitating, while continuing to streamline and improve them.”
DCANZ is also calling for food and nutrition policy grounded in current science on nutrient-dense foods such as dairy. This includes commissioning regular national nutrition surveys, ensuring dietary guidance updates reflect contemporary evidence on protein quality, dairy fat, the dairy food matrix and healthy dietary patterns, and fixing Health Star Ratings for cheese to recognise its contribution to healthy diets.
“New Zealand should be a confident international advocate for nutrition policy grounded in contemporary science,” Mr Roper said.
“Nutrition policy must account for nutrient density, bioavailability and the way whole foods function within a diet. These factors must not be displaced by simplistic classifications that overlook dairy’s nutritional contribution.
“New Zealand must protect dairy’s identity and value by adopting the longstanding international Codex standard on use of dairy terms. Plant-based alternatives should use distinct categories and names, with truth-in-labelling rules enforced.”
“Dairy has delivered for New Zealand through a difficult period and can deliver much more,” Mr Roper said.
“The policy choices made now will determine whether New Zealand captures that value, strengthens regional economies and generates the export earnings needed to support better public services and infrastructure.
“DCANZ is asking the next government to act with urgency and ambition, backed by a long-term, bipartisan commitment to New Zealand’s export success,” Mr Roper said.
A copy of the full document can be downloaded here